The Structure of US Food Demand

An exactly aggregable system of Gorman Engel curves for U.S. food consumption is developed and implemented. Box-Cox transformations on prices and income nest functional form. The model nests rank up to rank three. The model is estimated by nonlinear three-stage least squares with annual time series data on 21 foods, 17 nutrients, age and race demographics, and the distribution of income for 1919-1941 and 1947-2000. Results are consistent with full rank three. Point estimates for the Box-Cox parameters on income and prices are 0.86 and 1.09, respectively, strongly rejecting zero and one in both cases. No statistical evidence of serial correlation, specification errors, or parameter instability is found.Aggregation, food demand, functional form, parameter stability, rank, specification errors

WHEN IS EXPENDITURE "EXOGENOUS" IN SEPARABLE DEMAND MODELS?

The separability hypothesis and expenditure as an exogenous variable in a system of conditional demands are analyzed. Expenditure cannot be weakly exogenous in a system of conditional demands specified as functions of the prices of the separable goods and total expenditure on those goods. Furthermore, expenditure is uncorrelated with the residuals of the conditional demand equations only when severe restrictions are satisfied. Therefore, expenditure will seldom be strictly exogenous. Econometric methods are presented for the consistent and efficient estimation of the unknown parameters when expenditures is correlated with the residuals and when it is not.Demand and Price Analysis,

The Generalized Quadratic Expenditure System

This chapter presents the indirect preferences for all full rank Gorman and Lewbel demand systems. Each member in this class of demand models is a Generalized Quadratic Expenditure System (GQES). This representation allows applied researchers to choose a small number of price indices and a function of income to specify any exactly aggregable demand system, without the need to revisit the questions of integrability of the demand equations or the implied form and structure of indirect preferences. This characterization also allows for the calculation of exact welfare measures for consumers, either in the aggregate or for specific classes of individuals, and other valuations of interest to applied researchers.Aggregation, demand systems, functional form, integrability, rank

Duality Theory for Variable Costs in Joint Production

Duality methods for incomplete systems of consumer demand equations are adapted to the dual structure of variable cost functions in joint production. This allows the identification of necessary and sufficient restrictions on technology and cost so that the conditional factor demands can be written as functions of input prices, fixed inputs, and cost. These are observable when the variable inputs are chosen and committed to production, hence the identified restrictions allow ex ante conditional demands to be studied using observable data. This class of production technologies is consistent with all von Neumann-Morgenstern utility functions when ex post production is uncertain.Joint production, variable cost, duality theory

THE VALUE OF PROTEIN IN FEED BARLEY FOR BEEF, DAIRY, AND SWINE FEEDING

The impact of the protein content of feed barley on the costs of feeding beef, dairy cattle, and swine in Montana is evaluated. A model of least-cost feed rations is constructed to analyze the marginal value of additional protein content in feed barley. The results indicate that increasing the protein content of feed barley above 12% will not substantially increase the value of barley to feeders. This implies that the establishment and maintenance of a protein premium in the feed barley market would tend to result in lower average prices for feed barley because the feed value/protein relationship is concave and the market would be sustaining costs that the inherent value of the commodity could not support.Livestock Production/Industries,

INCOME ELASTICITY AND FUNCTIONAL FORM

Demand and Price Analysis,

Agricultural Arbitrage, Adjustment Costs, and the Intensive Margin

Farmland and capital are an important and rapidly expanding component of the agricultural economy, and empirical evidence suggests that these assets are quasi-fixed in that adjustment costs are incurred when holdings are altered. Increased interest in the rate of return for investing in farmland suggests that an important consideration is the effect of adjustment costs on this return. A novel theoretical model is developed that ties together contributions from the farmland pricing and adjustment cost literatures, and the first order conditions for a utility maximizing decision maker are rearranged into intertemporal arbitrage equations that are similar in spirit to traditional finance models. The common assumptions that land and capital are quasi-fixed assets, and that production is characterized by constant returns to scale are tested and the evidence supports these assumptions. An empirical application of the arbitrage equations provides evidence that risk aversion and adjustment costs are jointly significant components of agricultural production, and that adjustment costs generate significant changes in the rate of return to farmland. The results have important policy implications as sluggish supply response due to quasi-fixity can lead to dramatically inflated commodity prices, and an accurate measure of the farmland return can help determine how far the extensive margin will expand or contract in response to a variety of policy scenarios, such as the subsidization of corn for ethanol, an increase in the variety of subsidized crop insurance products, or the introduction of new revenue support programs such as ACRE.Arbitrage, Adjustment Costs, Farmland, Asset Pricing, Capital, Cost Function, Risk, Production, Agricultural Finance, Consumer/Household Economics, Crop Production/Industries, Farm Management, Financial Economics, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty,

GUIDELINES FOR WESTERN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS AUTHORS

This article explains the current editorial procedures and policies of the Western Journal of Agricultural Economics. The contents should be of interest both to readers and to authors who plan to submit manuscripts to the Journal. The current editorial policy of the Journal is discussed, the review and publication process is explained, and detailed guidelines for the proper preparation of manuscripts for the Journal are presented.Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

A MODIFIED PARTIAL ADJUSTMENT MODEL OF AGGREGATE U.S. AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY

Aggregate U.S. agricultural supply response is modeled through a modified partial adjustment model, where the effects of weather and other temporal stochastic effects are structured to be purely static, while the effects of price and technology, or trend, are dynamic. The model is applied to a time series of aggregate U.S. farm output, aggregate U.S. crop production, and aggregate U.S. livestock and livestock products production for several sample periods within the period 1911-1958. The three aggregate output indexes are tested for irreversibilities in supply response, and no evidence of a definitive irreversible supply function is found for any of the dynamic supply models. The use of a nonstochastic difference equation to model the aggregate farm output and crop production equations results in short-run elasticity estimates that are somewhat smaller than previous studied suggest while the long-run elasticities are somewhat larger.Demand and Price Analysis, Production Economics,

Milk Marketing Order Winners and Losers

Determining the impacts on consumers of government policies affecting the demand for food products requires a theoretically consistent micro-level demand model. We estimate a system of demands for weekly city-level dairy product purchases by nonlinear three stage least squares to account for joint determination between quantities and prices. We analyze the distributional effects of federal milk marketing orders, and find results that vary substantially across demographic groups. Families with young children suffer, while wealthier childless couples benefit. We also find that households with lower incomes bear a greater regulatory burden due to marketing orders than those with higher income levels.Milk, marketing orders, dairy industry regulation